How we did

Every prediction gets graded against the announced poster. The backtest below trains the model on lineups through 2022 only, then scores it on festivals it had never seen for 2023 through 2027. "Precision at K" is the share of our top K picks that made the lineup, where K is the lineup size.

Graded this season

Each board is frozen the last time it was scored before the lineup came out, then graded against the real poster. "On the lineup" counts how many of the names we listed made it. The model changed on November 12, 2026: "Current model" is the same board rebuilt with it, without the lineup, reports or market prices.

FestivalFrozenLineupOn the lineupCurrent modelTop 20Rumored
Coachella 2027Nov 1115719 of 20024 of 2005 of 203 of 7
Stagecoach 2027Nov 11578 of 20029 of 2005 of 20—
Welcome to Rockville 2027Nov 1114731 of 20041 of 2006 of 20—
Model
14%
Repeat-booking rule
6%
Sister-festival rule
5%
Circuit rule
1%

2023

FestivalKModelRepeatSisterCircuit
Austin City Limits Music Festival8724%2%3%2%
Aftershock9162%2%11%1%
Bonnaroo678%0%—2%
Boston Calling2917%6%—1%
BottleRock Napa Valley300%2%—1%
Bumbershoot190%——0%
Coachella12922%4%4%4%
Glastonbury11714%2%—2%
Governors Ball4813%0%—2%
Hangout Music Festival160%0%0%0%
Lollapalooza13926%3%12%4%
Louder Than Life6027%3%7%1%
Osheaga4817%0%—1%
Outside Lands627%1%—2%
Primavera Sound12513%3%—4%
Reading and Leeds8519%11%—2%
Sea.Hear.Now195%0%1%1%
Shaky Knees4013%2%3%1%
Stagecoach110%9%0%0%
Welcome to Rockville6526%3%14%1%

2024

FestivalKModelRepeatSisterCircuit
Austin City Limits Music Festival8521%3%3%2%
Aftershock11545%7%14%2%
Bonnaroo6211%0%—2%
Boston Calling2413%0%—1%
BottleRock Napa Valley388%5%—1%
Coachella11815%2%2%3%
Glastonbury11218%1%—2%
Governors Ball4920%3%—2%
III Points147%——0%
Innings Festival140%0%1%1%
Lollapalooza12431%6%6%4%
Louder Than Life5817%5%7%1%
Ohana Festival225%—0%1%
Outside Lands5513%0%—1%
Primavera Sound898%2%—2%
Reading and Leeds4023%5%—1%
Rolling Loud911%——0%
Sea.Hear.Now160%0%1%0%
Shaky Knees4214%3%4%1%
Stagecoach166%14%0%0%
Ultra Music Festival2025%31%—1%
Welcome to Rockville8528%10%20%2%

2025

FestivalKModelRepeatSisterCircuit
Austin City Limits Music Festival8527%1%3%2%
Aftershock9536%3%10%2%
Bonnaroo5910%2%—2%
Boston Calling300%0%—1%
BottleRock Napa Valley368%5%—1%
Bourbon & Beyond310%—0%1%
Bumbershoot150%——0%
Coachella11412%3%0%3%
Glastonbury10919%1%—2%
Governors Ball4015%3%—1%
New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival180%——0%
Lollapalooza10233%2%7%3%
Louder Than Life417%5%7%1%
Ohana Festival2413%3%—1%
Outside Lands350%0%—1%
Primavera Sound955%3%—2%
Reading and Leeds4120%11%—1%
Rolling Loud40%0%—0%
Sea.Hear.Now343%32%1%1%
Shaky Knees378%2%2%1%
Stagecoach1817%5%1%1%
Welcome to Rockville7723%9%15%2%

2026

FestivalKModelRepeatSisterCircuit
Austin City Limits Music Festival8232%2%5%2%
Aftershock11735%3%15%3%
All Points East234%——1%
All Things Go3818%——1%
BeachLife Festival150%——0%
Bilbao BBK Live274%——1%
Bonnaroo957%100%—5%
Boots and Hearts138%——0%
BottleRock Napa Valley4513%5%—1%
Carolina Country Music Fest911%——0%
CMA Fest3415%——1%
Coachella11511%2%0%3%
CRSSD Festival170%——1%
Download Festival6210%——2%
EDC Las Vegas6414%——2%
Electric Forest559%——1%
Flow Festival147%——0%
Fuji Rock Festival274%——1%
Governors Ball4630%2%—2%
Green Man Festival425%——1%
HARD Summer803%——2%
Heavy Montréal3517%——1%
Hinterland Music Festival3614%0%—1%
New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival3711%20%—1%
Lollapalooza11729%1%8%3%
Louder Than Life7612%3%10%2%
Outside Lands6321%0%—2%
Primavera Sound445%1%—1%
Reading and Leeds7622%10%—2%
Riot Fest6110%——1%
Rock in Rio280%——0%
Rock Werchter6314%——2%
Rolling Loud2124%13%—0%
Roskilde Festival4910%——1%
Sea.Hear.Now395%33%2%1%
Shaky Knees3415%2%3%1%
Stagecoach2711%8%1%1%
Tomorrowland556%——1%
Welcome to Rockville10128%7%19%3%

2027

FestivalKModelRepeatSisterCircuit
Coachella10910%1%0%2%
Primavera Sound6310%6%—1%
Stagecoach3625%8%0%1%
Welcome to Rockville10624%7%16%2%